Sunday, October 30, 2011

Bills After-Action Report: 2011 - Game 7


This was the worst thing that happened to the Bills today and you could argue it was actually pretty awesome:


George Wilson showing off his elite ball-hawking skills. You can see why he moved from WR to DB.

The Bills have a great record this year (5-2), but a lot of critics have pointed to their lack of success on the road as cause for concern. Those critics argued that the Bills only road win so far this season came against an ill-prepared Kansas City Chiefs team that demonstratively sucked. Well today the Bills traveled to Toronto and provided incontrovertible proof that they CAN win on the road! They even threw in directions so that those same self-satisfied critics can find their way to the crow factory for a heaping helping of-- What's that? Today's game counted as a home game? Goldarnit!

Tuesday, October 25, 2011

Campaiging for the lulz

It's reached the point where I can't even tell if someone is campaigning for real these days or if they are just doing it for the lulz. First, you have Rick Perry trolling Obama with the classic "Ha ha, you're not a real American!" gag:


Rick Perry got to pick up the birther mantle after Donald Trump had some fun with it earlier in the campaign. Trump got Obama-haters excited when he claimed he had people in Hawaii who "could not believe what they were finding."* This was such an outrageous claim that even Bill O'Reilly thought Trump was doing the birther thing for attention. And when Obama released his long-form certificate, Trump played it like that was exactly what he set out to do, which is classic griefing behaviour. Dance puppets, dance.


Many never believed that Trump was actually going to run -- even Bill Cosby recognized that Trump was "full of it" well before he left the race and I'm pretty sure Bill Cosby has been senile since the early '90s -- but Trump still got a lot of people to stand behind him before he jumped out of the way. Trump quit the race because, as he explained, who wants to be president when you have a "hit" TV show? And he is right; yelling at people on The Apprentice and flying to your golf courses (plural) on your helicopters (plural) has to be way more fun than being leader of the free world. Trump hasn't ruled out coming back into the race either, so expect another fun gag later on.


After getting a few pointers from Trump at at pizza place in NYC back in May, Sarah Palin was able to recreate the Trump experience. She trolled the media hard (and griefed her own supporters along the way) with a bus tour of early primary caucas states. At the end of the tour she essentially yelled, "Psych y'all!" and disappeared from the campaign. She also released a hype film about herself in July that was targeted at Tea Party districts and ended with her looking into the camera and saying, "Mr. President, Game on!" Three months later, it was game off.** You would think Republican candidates would at least have the decency to troll Democratic voters and not their own party.

"Ya see Sarah, first you get their hopes up and get their campaign donations, then, when they're invested emotionally and financially, you drop out the race!" "HA! That'll teach 'em to take the presidency seriously!"

Another hilarious way to mess with the public and the media is to take a fake thing from a video game and convince people that it is a real thing that is going to happen, like Herman Cain did with his SimCity tax plan. The Cain 9/9/9 plan caused poor people (that is, non-millionaires) to freak out once they realized how much more it would cost them in taxes.

I think this sort of thing is bound to happen when only millionaires like Cain and Trump (and, to a lesser degree, Mitt Romney) can afford to launch a campaign without significant financial aid. Everyone who cannot pay their own way has to do so many stupid things (think of all the pictures of GOP candidates eating corn dogs) to solicit campaign contributions and support, that the millionaires running around having a wank with the whole process are hard to distinguish from the rest of the pile. As if anybody who is already rich and powerful would want to be stuck with a job as demanding as President of the United States.

And then, there is this:


I doubt Mike Gravel was throwing rocks in ponds for the lulz back in 2008, but I do think he felt pressured to act like a weirdo to compete for eyeballs. The trend of politicans-qua-griefers wouldn't even be so bad if there weren't real candidates with good ideas being overlooked because someone else is doing silly things. And that forces the real candidates to act like idiots to get money and media attention, which is messed up. It's gotten to the point that I wouldn't be surprised to find out Rick Santorum secretly funded google-bombing of the contemporary definition of "santorum" just to be relevant again in a GOP presidential race that had (correctly) decided he was beside the point.

*: Trump's investigators were probably smart not to believe what they were finding since whatever was making Trump excited must have been bogus.

**: In  Palin's defence, the film only grossed $117,000, so maybe the support wasn't there for a presidential run.

Saturday, October 22, 2011

Sabres After-Action Report - 11/12 Season - Game 7

Of all the players on the Lightning to get fifteen seconds alone in front of the net, why did it have to be Martin St. Louis? That guy has more shifts than a factory. And what was he doing so far behind the play? I thought he was "defensively responsible" or something now. Jerk.

Meanwhile, Leino is clearly a double-agent sent over from Philly to torment Sabres fans; I know it's crazy but what proof do we have that isn't true? I bet he will continue to score just enough not to get benched (I'm thinking like .3 to .4 ppg) while handing the puck over to the other team at the worst possible times. Someone better check his bank accounts for transfers from the Wachovia Center.

Speaking of big free-agent acquisitions making terrible turnovers, how about Christian Ehrhoff putting one on the tape for Dominic Moore in the slot? Geeeeeeeeeeeeeez. Good thing it was Dominic Moore and not St. Louis.

On top of all that crap, we had to watch Tampa Bay clog the neutral zone and simulate what it would look like if all their players turned into goalies in the defensive zone. Stop collapsing to the crease and let us score, nerds! If the Sabres are using lasers to improve puck movement at the FNC -- and they actually are! -- then I bet Guy Boucher wants to use a snow machine to slow the game down in Florida. The Sabres didn't even play that badly and they still only averaged 7 shots per period. I hope that when Winnipeg moves to the Western Conference next year they take Tampa Bay with them.

Hey look! It's Guy Boucher's favourite book!

Thursday, October 20, 2011

Oh, let me count the ways: Death from above 1979 - Romantic Rights (Live on Late Night with Conan O'Brien)

Keeping up the trend of great videos featuring drummers that also sing and are therefore in the spotlight, it's time I showed some admiration for Death From Above 1979's performance of "Romantic Rights" on Late Night back in March 2005. Here's the link:

WARNING! DO NOT CLICK UNLESS YOU WANT YOUR FACE NAPALMED BY ROCK MUSIC!!!

Now I'm not normally a fan of live performance videos on the internet because they sound terrible, the camerawork can induce nausea, and cell phones can't capture a concert's ambiance. However, I'll make an exception for this video. The performers kill it, the camerawork is professional, and the audience wasn't there to see Death From Above anyway so the only ambiance you're missing is sitting with overweight Midwesterners who are shifting uncomfortably while the band flips out onstage. Keeping that in mind, let me count the ways in which the video is awesome:
  • Conan looks fresh-faced and not nearly as ghoulish as he does now
  • The band only has two pieces (like the Inbreds!) but the sound is still full, which forces you to realize how overrated guitars are to a band's sound. The fact that the band is only a rhythm section with vocals on top means they get credit for degree of difficulty.
  • I like the decision to replace the creaky intro found on the album. Instead the band comes out hard with an abrasive riff that is unrelated either melodically or by tempo to the rest of the song but sets the tone. Basically it says, "Hey! You! Conan viewer! Pay attention! 'Cause this isn't the Late Night laugh factory any more!"
  • You never see the bassist's face clearly because of his Norville "Shaggy" Rogers haircut. You could watch this video ten times and not be able to pick the bassist's face out of a lineup of art history grad students. It's appropriate, though, that you cannot see his face because it symbolizes that he can't be pinned down musically either. First he does the banging intro, then he gives you two standard verse/chorus iterations, then he breaks the song down and rebuilds it from the 2-minute to the 2:45 mark before laying into the explosive finale. In short, the bassist carries a diverse song with an instrument that most musicians use to more or less keep the beat in the background.
  • The singer/drummer's haircut may seem uncool now but in 2005 a low-key mohawk like that was still in style. It's like David Beckham's fauxhawk but with rougher edges.
  • I talked about this last time with the Twin Shadow video, but it is so nice to be able to see the drumming clearly. Plus it's a live performance so the drumming you see actually matches up with the drumming you hear.
  • The singer/drummer is so skinny to start with then he puts on tight pants (remember this is 2005 so you can't accuse him of being a hipster johnny-come-lately) and stands as vertically as possible with his legs flush and his arm straight over his head. Also, his socks are pulled up high over top of his jeans which is like throwing a hot dog at Tiger Woods; it's a strong statement but no one is really sure what it means. (Topical Reference! 10 Points!)
  • Have to mention the lyrics: they are not great (or even coherent most of the time) but they are delivered with that tone of menacing sexuality that I love.
  • As far as the vocals are concerned, I would be remiss if I didn't point out how magnificently the drummer/signer transitions from singing to screaming the same note.
  • Obvious highlight: Late Night in-house and E-Street Band drummer Max Weinberg sprinting across the stage to join the band for the finale and not quite making it on time. Talk shows are a volume business (as Conan would say) and so the band probably did not practice that entrance with Max very much. I expect they ran over it once in rehearsal and then had Max listen to the song a couple times before shooting. Who cares, though, because it only added drama to the performance and good on the band for not letting it throw them off.
  • I love the fact that Max feels he *has* to take off his suit jacket before he can play and when this delays him further he tries to take off his suit jacket and play the drums at the same time. He normally plays drums on the show in a full suit so I don't know why he took off his jacket in this situation. Maybe he felt he needed to be unrestricted to play this energetic song? Or maybe he was just trying to fit in a little more sartorially?
  • Max doesn't always arrive on time, but once he is there he is super entertaining to watch. I love the contrast between Max's demeanour and that of the band: Max looks so happy to be there while two members of the band look like they drank a mickey to get over breaking up with their high school sweetheart.
  • This video also provides an interesting contrast in drumming styles: First, Max uses the traditional grip with his left-hand turned upside-down while the singer uses a matched grip. Second, Max is less chained to the tempo compared to the signer; he will throw down an accelerated fill and then pause for a split-second to let the rest of the band catch up. Third, Max just uses more and longer fills. I think it's because he is a better drummer and he doesn't have to sing so can do a lot more with the same role.
  • I give Max props for not letting a foreign drum-set screw him up. When you are drumming you don't have time to think carefully about where you are going next so you have to rely on muscle memory to hit your targets. The drum-set in the video must be a little bit different from what Max normally plays on the show but it doesn't seem to throw him off for a second.
  • Did I mention the singer is a Canadian wearing an American flag neckerchief?
I only wish the video was louder.

P.S. No thanks to NBC/Universal/GE/Kabletown/whoever owns the rights for Conan's old Late Night clips these days for keeping this video off youtube so I couldn't embed it.

Wednesday, October 19, 2011

Late Mid-October Thoughts


The Giants were favoured by 3 points against the Bills last Sunday and they won by 3 points. Generally, home-field is said to be worth 3 points to the bookmakers, so I like to think that we would have tied on a neutral field.

Home-field advantage helped determine the 3-point margin of victory. On the Bills last-ditch drive, crowd noise caused the Bills to get a five-yard penalty for a false start and the Bills ended up falling five yards short of moving the chains on that set of downs.


I’m starting to think that maybe Ryan Fitzpatrick is not an elite starting QB in the NFL. He's not direct-snap-to-the-groin-bad, but he's not going to win the Super Bowl with a defense that gives up over 400 yards every game either. If he can get us to the playoffs I will be happy.


Why do we question whether a remake of a movie is “necessary”? Why not question if it is good? No movie is “necessary” in any sense of that word because entertainment is never about need. Entertainment is about being entertaining and if people enjoy the movie then it does not matter if it is a remake or an original.


As far as protest movements go, I like Occupy Wall Street. It is criticized for having a muddled message, but I believe their message is, “There is too much wealth disparity in America.” I like that message because I think it is true and I would support taxes that helped to redistribute wealth in the country, preferably through services like health care and social security.

That said (and here comes the criticism), I’d like to see a graph illustrating the wealth disparity between the bottom 99% in America and the average Bangladeshi or Liberian because complaining about being relatively poor in America is like being a 6’10’’ center in the NBA and complaining about being relatively short for your position – the rest of the world might think you’re being a bit of a whiner.


It says a lot about Canada that the major angle on the new Supreme Court justices is whether they are bilingual. In the States you would expect to hear whether they are conservative or liberal and what their views are on Roe v. Wade, but in Canada we just want to know if they can speak French.

Friday, October 14, 2011

Sabres After-Action Report - 11/12 Season - Game 3

At first, when Stafford scored to tied it up with two minutes left, I was all like:
But then Vanek took a dumb penalty, the PK unit fell apart and I was all like:

Unrelated: It pains me to watch Cam Ward outplay Ryan Miller, more than any other goaltender in the league.

Sunday, October 9, 2011

Bills After-Action Report: 2011 - Game 5

Terrifying to AFC and NFC foes alike, it's Fred Jackson ...


 ... IN SPACE!

The other takeaway from this game is that the Bills are good at takeaways.

Thursday, October 6, 2011

Tim Connolly vs. The Louvre Pyramid


Q: What's the difference between Tim Connolly and the Louvre Pyramid?




A: The Louvre Pyramid isn't entirely made of glass.
A: People are still willing to pay to see the Louvre Pyramid.
A: The Louvre Pyramid has five points.
A: The Louvre Pyramid at least has some good pieces around it.

Wednesday, October 5, 2011

I know what Boyes like

There are four over/under bets you can make on the point totals for Buffalo Sabres players. Here they are:

  • Derek Roy                 69½
  • Thomas Vanek           64½
  • Brad Boyes               57½
  • Drew Stafford             52½

There is only one that I like and that is taking Brad Boyes under 57.5 points even with the -115 vig. Boyes scored 55 points last year, so he would have to do about 5% better this year to hit 58 points and make me lose the bet. I don't think there are good reasons to believe he will make that jump, even if it is tiny.

The biggest reason I doubt Boyes is that I expect he will have a relatively diminished role on the Sabres this year. Lindy Ruff will juggle his lines like he always does, so Boyes will get some top-line minutes, but for the most part he is not going to be a top-six forward. It's the pigeonhole principle: there are only six spots to go around and there 8 or 9 guys to fill those spots. Thomas Vanek, Derek Roy, Jason Pominville, Ville Leino, Tyler Ennis, and Drew Stafford are all ahead of Boyes on the depth chart. That's six guys right there. Then you have Jochen Hecht (who should probably be a third-line guy but enjoys Lindy Ruff's adoration) and Luke Adam, who played with Vanek in the preseason, and you have eight guys for the top six spots, plus Boyes.

It's true that Boyes has been practicing and playing with Leino and Ennis at times, but he has also played and practiced with guys like Matt Ellis, Colin Stuart, and Cody McCormick. None of those guys are offensive juggernauts. Most likely he will be in a supporting role with guys like Nathan Gerbe who are good but not primary threats.

For example, by the end of Philly series last year, Boyes was already playing most of his minutes with grinders and bangers like McCormick despite injuries to Pominville and Roy that left two spots open in the top-six. He only produced one point in that series.




Now, that's just looking at his role in terms of 5-on-5 scoring lines, but the other big part of his role that will change this year is decreased time on the power-play. Last year, Boyes averaged 2 minutes and 27 seconds per game on the power play and got 23.6% of his points there. But again, there are too many scoring forwards to give all of them a spot on the two power-play units.* Even worse, the Sabres might try again to make Gaustad a viable screen-meister on the second power-play unit (despite his acute case of stone-hands). If they do so, that will leave even less time for Boyes on the PP.

While Boyes has played on the man-advantage a little bit in exhibition games, he has not been a cornerstone of the power-play in training camp; instead the Sabres practiced with Pominwille-Adam-Vanek on the 1st unit and Ennis-Leino-Stafford on the 2nd unit. And that was with Roy injured, so there are at least 7 forwards in line ahead of Boyes for time on the PP.

It's almost impossible for even a talented offensive player to score 55 points in a season playing on the third-line for three reasons: 1) he is playing fewer minutes; 2) he is playing with crappier linemates; and, 3) he isn't playing on the power-play, which is a disproportionate shore of the points are tallied.

The other major reason I feel good about betting that Boyes will not hit 58 points this year is that he has only managed to average 58 points in his career despite appearing in 82 games per season (on average). I believe a big part of injuries is random chance -- players can play a cautious, low-impact style but contact is still a big part of the game and a lot of injuries are freak occurrences that have nothing to do with a player's recklessness or lack thereof. Boyes has historically been a very healthy player, but if he misses two games because he has to (knock on wood) attend a funeral or something, his point total drops below the 57.5 points I need to win the bet even if he does manage to keep his career per game scoring pace this season.

And I don't think he would keep that pace, even if he continued to enjoy a featured role in his team's offence as he has in seasons past. I'll admit that Boyes has been able to put up points in the past -- since he joined the league full-time in 2005-06 as a 23 year-old, Boyes has averaged 58.2 points per season, however, I believe he is on the downside of his career. Here are his NHL stats:

Year                    GP           Points

2005-06 82 69
2006-07 81 46
2007-08 82 65
2008-09 82 72
2009-10 82 42
2010-11 83 55

The numbers do not plot a smooth locus on graph paper, but his last two years have been two of his three worst seasons in terms of points. Regardless, Boyes is now 29 years-old and although he is still arguably in the prime of his career, there are not a lot of middling players that enjoy a boost to their offensive production at that age. In terms of points, we can safely say that he has probably peaked. I expect Brad Boyes to be defensively responsible, play the system, and know what he can get away with, but I do not expect him to score forty goals or 72 points again. That era of his career appears to be over and that's the last reason why I strongly believe he will score less than 57.5 points this year.

*: There will be more room for forwards on the PP units if Ruff chooses to use forwards (e.g. Pominville) on the blueline but that seems unlikely with offensively-adept defenceman like Tyler Myers, Jordan Leopold, Andrej Sekera, Marc-Andre Gragnani, and, of course, Christian Ehrhoff all on the roster.

Tuesday, October 4, 2011