Thursday, September 29, 2011

Oh, let me count the ways: Twin Shadow - Slow

Here is a music video (from last year because I am so behind the times) featuring the song "Slow" by Twin Shadow, a one-man outfit.



Let me count the ways in which it is awesome:
  • The creepy way it is filmed at the start like an interview by James Spader's character in Sex, Lies, & Videotape.
  • The way the audio from the interview comes back in later the video over top of the music. I think most artists are too protective of their oeuvre to allow it to be desecrated like that but it almost always makes the video better, especially if it corresponds to a turning point in the song. Matt Good used to do this in his videos and it worked for him.
  • The haircut.
  • The emotional swell of the chorus.
  • The extended shots of the guy actually drumming (even though it does not always correspond to the drum track on the song). Normally in music videos the cuts are so fast and from such close and weird angles that you can't get any idea what the drummer is doing visually. This is stupid because the drummer is the most kinetically interesting member of the band. Every music video with a drummer playing should have a shot of him (or her!) playing his whole drum set for at least two bars and every music video with a guitar should at least two bars worth of the guitarist's fingering.
  • The way the music harkens back to new wave.
  • The synthy goodness of the keyboards.
  • The gloomy longing of the vocals.
  • The momentum of the bass line.
  • The cross-fades.
  • The drummer's intense look while he is drumming.
  • The sexual undertones and overtones to the rest of the video.

Tuesday, September 20, 2011

Breaking down the Tyler Myers contract

Tyler Myers signed a 7-year contract extension worth $38.5 million on September 15. It will kick in next year once his three-year entry-level contract has expired.

In my mind, the key factor that should be used to evaluate how the Sabres did for themselves in negotiating this contract is how many years of unrestricted free agency (UFA) status Myers gave up. Under the current CBA* Myers would normally become a UFA after the 2015-16 season by virtue of having accrued 7 professional seasons, but his contract extension lasts for another three years after that.

For the first four years of his new contract, Myers would still be a restricted free agent (RFA) if he was not under contract. What that means is that in the alternate universe where he didn't sign the contract extension, the Sabres could match any deal he signed and if they chose not to then they would be compensated with draft picks from the team poaching Myers. The higher the annual cap hit of the deal alternate-universe-Myers signed with a different team, the more drafts picks the Sabres would get from that team. Here is the sliding-scale of draft pick compesnation for the 2011-2012 season:

  • $1,034,249 or below: No compensation
  • $1,034,250 – $1,567,043: A 3rd round draft pick.
  • $1,567,044 – $3,134,088: A 2nd round draft pick.
  • $3,134,089 – $4,701,131: A 1st and 3rd round draft pick.
  • $4,701,132 – $6,268,175: A 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round draft pick.
  • $6,268,176 – $7,835,219: Two 1st’s, a 2nd and a 3rd round draft pick.
  • Over $7,835,219: Four 1st round draft picks.**

Given that Myers is already considered an elite defenceman, we can safely assume that at least one out of the other 29 teams in the league would be willing to give up a 1st and 3rd round draft pick for Myers, which corresponds to the $3,134,089 – $4,701,131 range this year. And since that team would have to give up the same number of draft picks regardless of where the contract fell in that range, it makes sense for them to make an offer near the ceiling so it would be difficult for the Sabres to match. That means alternatve-universe-Myers could expect to make about $4.7 million as an RFA just because of market pressures. I'm sure that the Sabres would match a contract that went higher than that but the point is that he is worth at least $4.7 million to the market comprised of the other 29 teams and so that figure sets a floor for his notional-salary-cap-hit over the first 4 seasons of his new contract extension.

If we break down Myers's salary on a notional-salary-cap-hit basis and put $4.7 million in for the first four seasons, here is what it would look like:
2012-13     $4.7     RFA
2013-14     $4.7     RFA
2014-15     $4.7     RFA
2015-16     $4.7     RFA     
2016-17     $6.5     UFA
2017-18     $6.6     UFA
2018-19     $6.6     UFA
Average     $5.5
The notional-salary-cap-hit for the last three years is calculated by dividing the $19.7 million remaining on Myers's contract at that point by 3.  I realize that the actual amount being paid to Myers on a year-to-year basis is very different, but for a team like the Pegula-era Sabres that would spend more than the salary cap if it could, the only relevant number is the salary cap hit.

Myers climbing Mount Kilimanjaro in the off-season

Other than his RFA/UFA status, the other important thing to understand in order to properly evaluate Myers's new contract is inflation. Now when I say "inflation" I do not mean the ordinary economic use of the term to describe a general increase in the costs of goods and services across the economy. Instead I am talking specifically about the year-to-year increase in NHL revenues and the corresponding increase in the salary cap. The basic idea is that a dollar against the cap now is actually a lot more expensive than a dollar against the cap in the 2018-19 season because the cap is always going up.

There a bunch of different ways to go about modelling what the salary cap will be in the future and I am not anywhere near smart enough to pull most of them off. So for our purposes consider the following: since the new CBA's first year in 2005-06, the NHL salary cap has gone up approximately $4.2 million per year from $39 million to $64.3 million. By assuming that trend continues, we can add two new columns to the table above.
Year         Cap Hit     Status    Salary Cap    Salary Cap Occupied
2012-13     $4.7          RFA       $68.5               6.86%
2013-14     $4.7          RFA       $72.7               6.46%
2014-15     $4.7          RFA       $76.9               6.11%
2015-16     $4.7          RFA       $81.1               5.80%
2016-17     $6.5          UFA       $85.3               7.62%
2017-18     $6.6          UFA       $89.5               7.37%
2018-19     $6.6          UFA       $93.7               7.04%
Since Myers's contract is so long and it does not even kick in for another year, it is a mistake to look at players with a $5.5 or $6.6 million cap hit now and compare them to what you think Myers will be like in 2018 to determine what he is overpaid. You have to look at other players occupying 7 to 7.6% of their team's salary cap now (and preferably ages 27-29) to find a fair apples-to-apples comparison to Myers during the UFA years of his contract. Right now 7.3% of the salary cap is $4.6939 or approximately $4.7 million.

Gee, $4.7 million, where have I heard that number before? Oh right! $4.7 million was the minimum amount Myers could have expected to make as an RFA next year! That means as long as 27 year-old Myers is better than 22 year-old Myers, the Sabres will be getting good value for the chunk of the salary cap he occupies and effectively under-paying a UFA.



*: The current CBA is due to expire this season which could mess everything up.

**: From year to year the type and number of draft picks stay the same but the salary ranges go up with the average NHL salary. Assuming that the average salary goes up again next year (as it has the last six years since the new CBA was instituted) then the ranges will go up again next year too. That means the offer sheet you would expect Myers to sign would actually be even higher than $4.7 million next year.

Friday, September 16, 2011

Tim Hudak - Provincial Man Of Mystery

I expect to vote in the Ontario election in 20 days. Tim Hudak is head of the Ontario Progressive Conservative (PC) party and his party has a good chance of winning the election. Although I consider myself a (relatively) informed voter and I've been exposed to lots of PC ads, here is an exhaustive list of what I know about Mr. Hudak at this point:

-He is the leader of the PC party
-At least one of his ancestors came from Czechoslovakia
-His name is Tim Hudak

Sunday, September 11, 2011

Oil!

Did you know that, in terms of the size of their reserves, the world's three biggest oil companies are all Russian? I think we've all heard of Gazprom, but it is actually the smallest of the three; both Lukoil and Yukos are bigger. Russia also has numbers 8 and 10 on the list.

That's awful for Russia. Consider the effect the oil lobby has on the United States political process and then think about what would happen if the oil companies were bigger and the political process was less transparent. Is "corrupter" a word?


Speaking of "corrupter", do you think that after Qatar used all of that oil money to bribe FIFA and become host of the 2022 World Cup soccer dudes will be motivated to reduce their dependence on foreign oil?

Saturday, September 10, 2011

Tommy Douglas: Greatest Canadian or Evil Nazi?

On November 29, 2004, the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation declared that Thomas Clement Douglas was the Greatest Canadian. But I disagree.

First of all, he was Scottish. Not only is that not Canadian, it is barely even British. Plus it means he likely shared carnal relations with a farm animal.

Second, his Dad was named Thomas, so he and his Dad had the same name. That's a little bourgeoisie for a CCFer, isn't it?

In high school he studied "elocution" which is essentially a fancy word for demagoguery. He later refined his devious mind-tricks at the McMaster debate club.

He failed to complete his PhD like he failed to leave Canada to go fight Hitler during WWII.

He became the leader of the Saskatchewan CCF in 1942 but did not bother to resign his position as a member of the House of Commons until the middle of 1944. He preferred to maximize his own standing even when it was clear he could not simultaneously run the provincial CCF while also fighting for his constituents' interests in Ottawa the way an MP should.

He caused the 1962 Saskatchewan doctor's strike then abandoned his party for federal politics, leaving his successor to implement state health-care in the province.

When he became leader of the federal NDP he went out and lost the seat he contested in the next federal election. Rather than accept his lumps he made one of his MPs way out in BC resign so he could parachute into their seat via by-election. The voters in his new riding had already grown sick of him five years later when they booted him out in the federal election of 1968. And once again he forced one of his loyal servants to give up their seat so he could sit in the House of Commons and watch the Liberals run the country. The federal election of 1968 was also notable for the NDP managing to edge out the Ralliement créditiste -- yes, that was a real party back then -- for third-party status.

He gets a lot of credit for "inventing" public health care in Canada. You can debate how much he actually contributed (to Lester B. Pearson's* Liberals creating Medicare in Canada), but what bothers me is that he only became passionate about the issue because he was saved by free health care as a child. It rings hollow when someone is afflicted by something and then suddenly that something is the most important issue in the world and everyone has to come together to support their cause because it is, like, super important now, guys, omg.

Once he retired from politics, Douglas used his connections to get a cushy job making big bucks as a corporate executive with Husky Oil. His experience as an energy critic made him a valuable lobbyist to the company. Nowadays, that sort of move from politics to lobbying would be prohibited.



Finally, Tommy Douglas is disqualified from being the Greatest Canadian of All-Time because his M.A.thesis was not just on the topic of the eugenics, it actually endorsed the "science". He wanted to test everybody for diseases, mental-handicaps and/or moral failings, then send those who failed to meet his standards away to state camps so they could be sterilized. He never recanted his endorsement of eugenics.

Tommy Douglas was not the Greatest Canadian. Deal with it, pinkos.

*: You might better remember Lester B. Pearson (a.k.a. the real Greatest Canadian) for being the only Canadian to ever win the Nobel Peace Prize.

Thursday, September 1, 2011

Fetchball

My wife is always telling me that she wants to spend more time together so I am always telling her she should watch football with me. My offer is basically 12 straight hours of sitting on the couch together eating nachos. For incomprehensible reasons my offer is always rebuffed, refused, and I am reprimanded. I (want to) believe, though, that my wife would come around to spending her fall Sundays with the me and the NFL if she better understood the sport. After all, you never really appreciate something until you have the proper analogy to understand it. And that's why I wrote this explanation of football positions using dog breeds.

Think about your local dog park and how the dogs interact when someone is throwing a ball for them. Much like football, it first appears as though all the running is random, but over time patterns emerge. The ball keeps coming back to the same guy (or gal) who chucks it. Certain dogs tend to come up with the ball while others bite and play violently. They'll try and grab the ball right out of the thrower's hand if you are not careful. Other dogs stand off the side or feel compelled to make a lot noise but cannot grab the ball. Pretty quickly you can categorize the dogs into different roles which allows the whole scene to make sense.

It's the same thing with football (except there are more concussions). The quarterback (read: guy throwing the ball) gets the ball when it's handed to him and some players on the other side try to grab it away, but the quarterback will throw the ball away before they can do so. The ball is caught and everyone on the other team tries to get it away from the guy with the ball or take him out.

Hey, I'm not saying it's a perfect analogy, but no analogy is perfect and this will make more sense once we get going.



Offence

Quarterback: Throws the ball. It's the human in this analogy, but if it had to be a dog then it would probably be a geriatric golden retriever. The golden retriever often has the ball to start with and he usually gives the ball up without too much of a jerk-face. The dog is handsome and tall, but not crazy athletic, relying more on intelligence and veteran savvy to succeed. Being to read the play is important to this dog/position, but it sometimes gets crushed by other, more reckless dogs.

 

Running Back: This is the dog that often ends up with the ball and runs around with it for a while because it is very hard to get the ball away for that dog. It's not big but it is agile and can make you miss. Probably best translates to a Jack Russell on leg steroids.



Wide Receiver: Greyhound. Gazelle-like. Tall, sleek and very fast. Can get to the ball first and run with it once it makes the catch but may get run over by a trucking linebacker/big dog. Also, some of them can be divas.


Offensive Line: Very, very large even for football players. Almost everyone on a football field is way bigger than the average man but offensive lineman stand out even amongst football players. Never really tries to go after the ball because it is totally focused on battling physically with the other animals. Gentle giants who exert their will through sheer mass and power. There are actually three different positions on the offensive line (center, guard, and tackle) so I will pick out three dog breeds: Newfoundlanders, Irish Wolfhounds, and English Mastiffs. Joint problems are common and their lifespans are depressingly short. Will occasionally fall on balls that are fumbled away by other players/dogs.





Tight End: St. Bernard. Somewhere between an offensive lineman and a wide receiver. Can catch the ball but still a lumbering giant.



Defence 

Defensive Line: The bulldog. In reality, these guys are some of the biggest on the field but I had to make them the bulldog even though the bulldog is a small sized dog because of its other characteristics. Imagine a bulldog that weighs as much as a Great Dane and you have a defensive tackle. Quick over short distances, don't expect this dog/player to chase anything down. It will clog up the middle and force others to go around it. Wide-set with a low center of gravity. Mean-looking. Wants the ball but will not run far to get it. Runs at you and tries to grab the ball away even if though it knows you are going to throw it.



Linebacker: Labrador Retrievers. Big and thick but still fast enough to chase down the ball carrier. These guys will put a lick on you. Well-rounded, high-motor dogs that always end up near the ball if not quite on it and need to have some modicum of intelligence to be able to read the play.


Cornerback: West Highland Terrier. The smallest guys on the field but they overcompensate with lots of woofing. Rarely gets the ball because it can't really hold onto it. Small and fast but not usually physical, these are the whirling dervishes on the outside that like to act tough.



Safety: Border Collie. Big but not huge. Very fast with great instincts and and intensity, the border collie/safety can come out of nowhere to pick the ball of by using patience and positioning. The best ones have great anticipation and are obsessed with the game.




Special Teams

Kicker: Sheltie. These guys are kind of a joke and don't really look like they belong. Usually found off to the side away from the field of play. It's padding/fur makes it look twice as big as it really is.



Punter: Weiner Dog. Not a real dog/football player, but fun to watch do its thing.