The Significance of Brad Richards

A lot of people have downplayed the significance of the Rangers signing Brad Richards. They have suggested that in a different year, he would not have stood out so much from the rest of the pack of unrestricted free agents (UFAs).

I think these people are overlooking just how good Brad Richards is. He was third in points last year amongst centers despite missing an eighth of the season. He put up that kind of production playing between Loui Eriksson and James Neal. Eriksson is good but James Neal is the guy who got traded to Pittsburgh at the deadline and put up 1 goal in 20 games with his new team.

Last year was not an aberration either. It was the fourth time Richards was in the top five in scoring by a center. When folks say they want a proven first-line center for their team, this is the type of guy they should be thinking of.

And Richards's value goes beyond point production. A lot of people put a premium on playoff performance and Richards is not only a Stanley Cup winner, he is a Conn Smythe winner, plus he shares the record for most points in the third period of a playoff game (4) while with the Stars. You can give Richards some bonus points for leadership, too, since he wore an 'A' in Dallas.

OK, focus Brad! You can do this! Just keep the controller high and everything will be fine!

That kind of player does not come onto the open market very often because teams don't like to lose that type of player for nothing. Just look at when the four other top-5 centers from last year will be UFAs, at the earliest:

• Henrik Sedin      2014
• Steven Stamkos 2015
• Eric Staal           2016
• Jonathan Toews 2015

The average is 2015 and that is only if their teams don't sign them to extensions. If they don't, it will probably be because those players left the top-5.

You can also appreciate the uniqueness of the Richards situation this way: The last time a center who was top 3 in points came onto the free agent market under the current CBA was never. I mean it hasn't happened since before 2006 and I don't care to look back past that. For all I know, it might never have happened.

The last time a center who was top-5 in points came onto the free agent market was in 2006 when the Bruins snatched Marc Savard (#5) away from the Thrashers. (How did that work out for you, Atlanta?)

Maybe you're thinking, "Aw, this guy is only looking at the top-5 in points. I'm sure there are lots of 1st-line centers out there who aren't at the very top but are going to be available in a 30-team league." Well, there are two centers who were in the top-30 in scoring last year and are scheduled to be UFAs next year but I doubt anyone is counting down the days to July 1, 2012 because they are hoping Mikhail Grabovski or Tuomo Ruutu will be available.

The year after that you can fight over Sidney Crosby, Mike Ribeiro, David Krejci, and Brandon Dubinksy, if any of those guys are actually available. The chances of that happening are minimal for several reasons:

1. A team can start negotiating with a player under contract with the team a year before anyone else gets a shot at that player.
2. Players are risk-averse so they do not want to wait a year while they play a violent game when they could sign a contract right away and guarantee themselves millions of dollars that might otherwise be lost in one freak accident on the ice or elsewhere.
3. Players have families. Their children go to schools and make friends locally and their wives are often from the area.
4. Players have sentimental attachments of their own to their teammates, their coaches, their city and their fans that are tough to walk away from.
5. Teams don't want to alienate fans by letting elite players walk-away. If that sort of thing happens then the fans lose confidence that the team is committed to building a winner and they lose a connection with a player who was a big part of the team's public image.
6. The teams already know the player can be successful in their system. They know there is a certain level of compatibility with the other players in the locker-room and the coaches on the bench, so keeping that player is preferable to trying to incorporate a new part from elsewhere that may have hidden defects.

In short, the circumstances that led Richards to New York are extremely rare because he is a rare commodity and the system is designed to keep those rare commodities with their team. People who tell themselves not to worry because their team can pick up an elite 1st-line center next year are deluding themselves. Even if the supply was there, the competition would be formidable (so let's hope Ville Leino really is a 1st-line center and the Sabres have found a solution where none was thought to exist).