Deficit Confusion Update

So back in February I wrote about how the Conservative Party of Canada ("CPC") -- hailed for its excellent stewardship of the economy -- seemed to be all over the place with its deficit projections. Here's a quick reminder of this government's "success" managing the federal budget:

• Jan 2006: CPC inherits a $13 billion surplus from the Liberals.
• Oct 2008: Stephen Harper says, "We'll never go back into deficit."
• Jan 2009: Jim Flaherty projects deficit of $33.7 billion in 2009–10 and surplus in 2013–14.
• Mar 2010: CPC finishes running $55.6 billion deficit for 2009-2010 fiscal year.
• Mar 2011: Flaherty projects surplus in 2015-2016.
• Apr 2011: CPC promises surplus by 2014-2015 on campaign trail. Harper says, "Our platform is realistic, accurately costed and looks four years down the road."
• Nov 2011:  Flaherty projects deficit until 2015-2016.

Now, another year has gone by and Flaherty has updated his projections again. You'll never guess what he said!

• Nov 2012: The $26-billion federal budget deficit will not be eliminated until the 2016-17 fiscal year.

In other words, the CPC's projection for the elimination of the deficit has gone from being 4 years away in April 2011 when the party was campaigning to being 4 and a half years away now that 18 months have passed. At this rate, by the time the next election rolls around in 2015, the deficit will be less than 6 years away from grim and certain death.

It's weird that Flaherty keeps on moving the goalposts because Canada has cut corporate tax rates, oil and commodity prices have been high until recently, 10,980 federal jobs have been cut, America's economy is back on track, and the federal government has made it known that it is overflowing with business savvy. It can't be that Canada's economy is operating sub-optimally in these auspicious conditions, can it? That must be the case, though, because otherwise the federal government is running a structural deficit and that's inconceivable.

Spot the turning points