Thursday, June 9, 2011

Average-first-line-center -- a post with too many hyphens

There has been a lot of discussion amongst Buffalo Sabres fans recently -- actually, for a long time -- about the Sabres (putative) need for a first-line center. I am sure many other teams' fanbases are having the same discussion because the demand for first-line centers somehow manages to always outstrip the supply of first-line centers, at least in the minds of fans. That may sound nonsensical, but you have to understand that when hockey fans use the term "first-line center", they don't mean someone who plays on the first line as a center, they mean someone who plays center and is awesome. That means there are really only 10 or 15 first-line centers to go around in a 30-team league.

But I was curious what the average first-line center would look like if you defined first-line centers to be the group of 30 centers that had the highest point totals at their position last year. Essentially, I am making the assumption that there is one first-line center out there for each team although they may not be evenly distributed.* I realize that the 30 centers with the highest point production are not necessarily the 30 best centers in the sport but the use of points does give us some idea who fits the bill. Here are their averages:

Games Played: 75.2
Goals: 25.57
Assists: 40.87
Points: 66.43
Even-strength points: 43.57
Power-play points: 20.8
Short-handed points: 1.2
Points-per-game: 0.898
Age: 25.8

More than other positions, centers are judged by points, but there is more than one way to rank point-production. For example, rather than use the top-30 point totals, we can look at the top-30 points-per-game (PPG) centers and see how that tweaks the numbers: 

Games Played: 70.1
Goals: 24.13
Assists: 39.67
Points: 63.8
Even-strength points: 41.03
Power-play points: 20.9
Short-handed points: 11
Points-per-game: 0.921
Age: 26.5

Lastly, what if instead of taking the top-30 point-producers across the league regardless of distribution amongst teams, we instead took the number-one centers from each team (based on PPG) and calculated their averages? Well, here is what you get:

Games Played: 70.7
Goals: 21.97
Assists:37.77
Points:59.73
Even-strength points: 40.03
Power-play points: 18.8
Short-handed points: 0.9
Points-per-game: 0.861
Age: 26.67

In conclusion, the average first-line center scores goals is a twenty-goal scorer and has around 40 assists. About 40 of the player's points came at even-strength and he scored another half as much on the power-play. He played between 70 and 80 games while producing at around .9 points-per-game over that span, and he recently entered celebrated his quarter-century. The player who probably comes closest to those numbers is ...


... Joe Pavelski, who plays on the second line for San Jose behind Joe Thornton and arguably does not even play center. Well, that was a waste of time. Sorry everybody.

*: In case you were wondering, the 10 teams that did not have a center in the top-30 in total points were, alphabetically: Atlanta, Buffalo, Calgary, Columbus, Edmonton, Florida, Nashville, New Jersey, Phoenix, and St. Louis. Between them, those 10 teams won a total of one playoff series. In contrast, the 8 teams that had two or three centers in the top-30 in terms of total points have already won 11 playoff series between them and are guaranteed one more in the Stanley Cup Final since both Vancouver and Boston have multiple players in the same top-30. Keep in mind that there are only 15 playoff series in total so the 8 teams with multiple top-30 centers are going to end up winning 80% of the series.

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